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Monday, February 25, 2019

Warren Buffet 🚨 Warns Of Upcoming “MEGACATASTROPHE” And Our Losses Will Be BIG in Mar 2019

Warren Buffet Warns Of Upcoming “MEGACATASTROPHE” And Our Losses Will Be BIG,,

Billionaire Warren Buffet has issued a warning that there is an upcoming “megacatastrope” on the horizon.  Buffet says that when this apocalyptic scenario plays out, our losses will be immeasurable.
In his annual letter, Buffet warned of a “megacatastrophe,” which he said will cause unprecedented havoc not just to victims but to the financial world as well. “A major catastrophe that will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael will occur – perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now,” the Berkshire Hathaway CEO wrote. “‘The Big One’ may come from a traditional source, such as a hurricane or earthquake, or it may be a total surprise involving, say, a cyber attack having disastrous consequences beyond anything insurers now contemplate.”
The financial world is being propped up by central banks and the debt-based monetary system that far too many trust will eventually meet its demise.  This could cause a worldwide societal collapse of epic proportions.
Public services crumble and disorder ensues as the government loses control of its monopoly on violence. (Meaning people realize they are slaves, and no longer wish to be subjugated and punished at the whims of the ruling class/government, but seek their own liberty and self-ownership.) As people begin to realize that the political class (ruling class) is exceptionally wealthy as they slave away and half their wages are stolen to prop up those who exert power over them, societies tend to collapse. Government stays fat and happy when the slaves don’t realize they are enslaved. SHTFPlan
It could all begin with a disastrous financial crisis.  One which we are close to, regardless of what is being said in mainstream media. Economic numbers all over the world continue to get worse, and even New York Times columnist Paul Krugman is now warning of “an unavoidable global recession”. Unfortunately, most Americans still have absolutely no idea that this is happening right underneath their noses. Most ordinary citizens are still under the impression that everything is going to be just fine, but the numbers suggest otherwise. 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck while 40% don’t have enough money to cover a $400 emergency.  Americans carry record levels of consumer debt and student loan debt while borrowing further with their use of credit cards.
But the “megacatastrophe” Buffet warns of could come in the form of natural disaster; although if that’s going to happen, it better hurry to beat the financial crisis the globe has found itself in.  Science writer Kathryn Shultz galvanized public attention to the threat in 2015 with the New Yorker essay “The Really Big One,” in which she describes how an earthquake could destroy a large chunk of North America’s coastal Northwest. “The hand of a geological clock is somewhere in its slow sweep,” she wrote. “All across the region, seismologists are looking at their watches, wondering how long we have, and what we will do before geological time catches up to our own.”
A Yellowstone supervolcano eruption, potential pole shift, and a massive West Coast earthquake all seem to be possibilities when considering natural disasters that could be on the scale of a “megacatastrophe.” It is troubling that Americans are unable to afford home purchases with 30-year mortgages at just 4.5%. Here’s an update on the troubled housing market…
from Zero Hedge
After NAHB’s optimism rebounded sharply earlier this week, all eyes were on the existing home sales data for any signs of optimism. Alas, with consensus expecting a tiny rebounding in January following December’s sharp drop, the deterioration in the US home market continued continued, and January existing home unexpectedly dropped 1.2% (exp. +0.2%), to 4.94 million, missing expectations of a rebound to 5.00 million.
After December’s revision higher to 5.00 million, the January SAAR of 4.94 million was the first sub-5MM print since 2015, while the parallel pending home sales series confirms even more weakness is in store.
 
Needless to say, it is very troubling that Americans are unable to afford home purchases with the 30-year mortgage at just 4.5%, and suggests that even if inflation picks up, the Fed may have no choice but to keep rates flat to avoid a housing market crash.
As usual, NAR chief economist Larry Yun was optimistic, saying that he does not expect the numbers to decline further going forward. “Existing home sales in January were weak compared to historical norms; however, they are likely to have reached a cyclical low. Moderating home prices combined with gains in household income will boost housing affordability, bringing more buyers to the market in the coming months.”
One wonders what “gains in household income” he is talking about.
Meanwhile, properties are failing to sell as the slowdown spreads: Properties remained on the market for an average of 49 days in January, up from 46 days in December and 42 days a year ago. Thirty-eight percent of homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month.
Still, despite the ongoing slowdown, or perhaps adding to it, the median existing-home price rose once again, hitting $247,500, up 2.8% from January 2018 ($240,800). January’s price increase marks the 83rd straight month of year-over-year gains.
Even so, Yun noted that this median home price growth was the slowest since February 2012, and is cautions that the figures do not yet tell the full story for the month of January. “Lower mortgage rates from December 2018 had little impact on January sales, however, the lower rates will inevitably lead to more home sales.”
Regional breakdown:
  • January existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 700,000, 1.4 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $270,000, which is up 0.4 percent from January 2018.
  • the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 2.5 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.16 million in January, down 7.9 percent overall from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $189,700, which is up 1.4 percent from last year.
  • Existing-home sales in the South dropped 1.0 percent to an annual rate of 2.08 million in January, down 8.4 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $214,800, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.
  • Existing-home sales in the West dipped 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.00 million in January, 13.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $374,600, up 2.9 percent from January 2018.
While total inventory grew for the sixth straight month, Yun says the market is still suffering from an inventory shortage. “In particular, the lower end of the market is experiencing a greater shortage, and more home construction is needed,” says Yun.
“Taking steps to lower construction costs would be a tremendous help. Local zoning ordinances should also be reformed, while the housing permitting process must be expedited; these simple acts would immediately increase homeownership opportunities and boost local economies.”
With existing-home sales accounting for about 90% of U.S. housing, it would seem Jay Powell’s dovish tilt just got more support, but at what point does bad news flip to being ‘bad news’ as growth hopes get hammered.
Trump’s expected to meet (once again) with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, just in time to pump stocks higher 30 minutes ahead of today’s close…
from Zero Hedge
As anybody who has been paying attention to the market over the past 2 months is aware, the multi-month rally in stocks has in large part – in addition to the now quite explicit central bank support – been driven by jawboning from President Trump and senior administration officials, who haven’t missed an opportunity to pump assets with optimistic, if vague, pronouncements about the state of the talks.
Though there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that deep divisions remain and that the Chinese are nowhere near relenting on the US’s key demands when it comes to currency manipulation and stealing technology transfer , when Trump tells it, the talks are either going “very, very well,” or “moving in a positive direction” or on the verge of some unspecified breakthrough.
But this doesn’t mean that the storm clouds aren’t gathering. US stocks closed in the red on Thursday as trade anxieties briefly resurfaced, and as investors briefly appeared to acknowledge the fact that –  as the Wall Street Journal explicitly reported in a story published last night – “deep gaps” persist between the US and Chinese officials as they struggle to hammer out their six memorandums of understanding.
And in what could be a make-or-break moment, President Trump is expected to meet (once again) with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday at 2:30 pm ET, just in time to pump stocks higher with a press conference 15-30 minutes ahead of the close. The meeting has taken on increased significance since Liu, the Chinese official who has been tasked with leading the negotiations, has been imbued with “special envoy” status by President Xi, empowering him to negotiate on behalf of the Chinese leader.
The meeting follows a promise made by Beijing to purchase another $30 billion of US soybeans, corn and wheat – a promise that, as Forbes’ Ken Rapoza pointed out in a recent column – would be practically impossible to fulfill.
There are three ways in which China can import $30 billion more in U.S. agricultural goods per year in an attempt to appease President Trump’s concerns about deficits.
These three should give you a sense of how off the mark this number is.
Either China wants to ram food down the throats of its citizens, has plans to build more silos to store grain (which is already rotting in Chinese silos), or will just stop buying soy and beef and chicken from Brazil, much to Brazil’s dismay.
And though China has offered other concessions like opening up its market to foreign insurers, something that would progress only gradually, negotiators have resisted the US’s demands for “structural reforms” to its economy and denied accusations that it forces foreign competitors to hand over their IP. Meanwhile, the US’s demands that Beijing keep its currency “stable” – something that Chinese policy makers are already struggling to achieve – has been met with a wary response from Beijing (and would be counterproductive to the US in the long run).
As the fourth round of negotiations since the start of the year comes to a close on Friday, and with the March 1 deadline looming in the very near future, analysts are growing confident that the US will put off raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
“Given that enough headway seems to have been made to warrant a meeting between Trump and the Chinese negotiator today, it appears more likely that the U.S. will not raise the levies, which should help high-beta currencies and equities push higher,” said Konstantinos Anthis, head of research at ADSS.
Analysts at UBS joked that traders expect the March 1 deadline to be “magically moved” (after Trump said the deadline wasn’t “a magical date”).
US President Trump is to meet Chinese Vice Premier Lee Hu today, to discuss the magic date of 1 March (when President Trump increases taxes on Americans who buy goods partially made in China). Investors increasingly expect that date to be magically moved, or even to disappear.
But anybody hoping for news of a breakthrough in negotiations might be disappointed.

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